$4,275：中東紛争やFRBへの注目が続く中、金は危うい状況にある

• Gold sees a tepid bounce above $4,300 early Tuesday, as the Fed meeting kicks off.
• US Dollar sits at weekly highs amid widening Mideast conflict, higher Oil prices and hawkish Fed bets.
• Gold defends the key 50-day SMA at $4,275 for now, with RSI still below 50.

Gold is briefly regaining $4,300 early Tuesday, looking to build on a tepid recovery from six-week troughs near $4,250. Traders are monitoring the widening conflict in the Middle East ahead of the two-day US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting later in the day.

Despite the latest upswing, Gold remains vulnerable to further downside amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Gulf, elevated Oil price-driven inflation concerns, and hawkish bets around the Fed’s policy outlook.

On Monday, “Yemen's Iran-backed militant group, Houthis, launched a new attack on Saudi Arabia after Riyadh blamed Iran-backed fighters in Iraq for an attack on the kingdom's east-west pipeline. Gulf Arab states also postponed planned talks with Iran,” per Reuters.

Intensifying concerns over the US-Iran war translating into a full-fledged regional conflict in the Middle East and the resulting surge in Oil prices continue to keep the US Dollar (USD) underpinned near weekly highs against its major currency rivals. That, in turn, remains a risk for Gold’s recovery.

The Greenback also capitalizes on investors’ doubts about the rapid development and usage of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly after calls by leading industry figures to slow its development.

Further, a 92% probability of the Fed hiking rates this week, following a few upside surprises in the August inflation report and blockbuster Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, remains supportive of the recent USD uptrend, with the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yields topping the 5% key level for the first time since 2023.

Strategists at Scotiabank observe that recent market dynamics justify the Dollar’s firm tone into the FOMC meeting, noting that “in recent years, swaps pricing which indicated 70% or higher risk of a Fed rate move has been a near perfect indicator of a policy move, so dollar gains in response to swaps pricing is understandable.” They caution, however, that “there are still some risk around the outlook,” with the balance of scenarios skewed to how the Fed communicates its next steps. In their view, “an unchanged decision from the Fed would be a shock for markets and a clear negative for the USD,” while even a “dovish” hike “which does not obviously commit to additional moves would also likely weigh on the USD.” Against this backdrop, Scotiabank judges that “the DXY is about fairly priced for where front-end spreads are right now,” and argues that “further DXY gains—holding above the 100 level—will need the support of a significant move in yield differentials,” adding that “it’s not clear to us at this point that Fed is prepared to lift rates to that extent.”

That said, all eyes are now on the Fed's view on future rate hikes, which will be highlighted by the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the so-called Dot Plot, considering that a rate hike and Chairman Kevin Warsh’s limited words are a given.

In the meantime, Middle East developments and position readjustments could drive Gold price action, leaving the bright metal subject to volatility.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,310.80, holding a bearish near-term bias as it sits below the 21-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) while only modestly above the 50-day SMA. The 14-day Relative Strength Index around 45 keeps a slightly negative tone, suggesting sellers retain the upper hand unless price can reclaim overhead moving-average barriers.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 100-day SMA near $4,329.01, ahead of a stronger cap at the 21-day SMA around $4,450.09, while the 200-day SMA near $4,539.58 forms a broader bearish line in the sand. On the downside, the 50-day SMA at $4,275.85 offers first support; a clear break below this level would open the door to deeper corrective losses toward prior horizontal levels not yet in play on the current moving-average map.